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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet the current race is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and longtime strugglers improving together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still